whatsoever with the president, in person on the phone. when you have that kind of thing happening, that is your own side. don't talk to me about obstruction the other party. if you are not even committee kidding getting kidding with your own side. ..

[inaudible conversations] >> good afternoon. good afternoon, and welcome to

the washington substitute. i'm rob, the executive director, and i'm delighted to see all of you here today. i think the interest in foreign policy in the wake of our presidential election is certainly evident by the remotely standing crowd we have here today. we are now already into the process of transition, transition even with the same president, transitions are the most fluid and receptive moments in the are presidential cycle to impact the policy process, and so i'm -- i take it as a good sign there's so much interest in the foreign policy process by your presence here today. now, i think that the transition from a first to a second obama administration may, of course, begin the day after an election, but it doesn't end on inauguration day. this process is going to continue for some time. as the president's new or old

team takes shape and where as necessary, seeks con fir nation, goes through reassessment, definition of priorities and opportunities and as other issues, domestic issues, the fiscal cliff, for example, impacts foreign policy, and let's not forget as the world recalibrates to the changes, or as people say, the lack of changes, here in washington. at the same time, as we begin to talk about foreign policy and a second obama administration, don't forget that history doesn't stop or slow down in the middle east. elections are coming up. israel, jordan, egypt, iran, and elsewhere, we're seeing in front of our eyes more violent change happening in syria. the reverberations felt in every one of those country's borders. elsewhere from beirut to

bahrain, it's a low boil, ready to burst out in a way that would affect our interests in very fundamental ways. there's two problems at the far end of the threat spectrum. the iran nuclear challenge on one hand and spread of al-qaeda and spread of terrorism on the other that will continue to dominate unless we forget within a year of taking office, both presidents obama and bush, his predecessor, were faced with previously unforeseen events that fundamentally challengedded their middle east policies. 9/11 for president bush, and the arab spring for president obama. there's a lot on the agenda. today, we're going to take an early look at what will be and what should be the foreign policy of a second obama administration in the middle east. now, we, at the washington institute, for us, this is just

the beginning of a -- of quite a number of events and an undertaking producing a series of transition issues on key issues, and research staff and by outside scholars and practitioners we commissioned to look at specific topics, and so over the next several weeks, we'll come together with some frequency, both here in person and in the cyber world to focus on discreet, individual topics, but, today, we begin this process with a more general discussion in which i and my two distinguished colleagues examine broader issues at stake in the middle east for a second obama administration. at this moment, if i can, just remind people, if you could please turn your cell phones off, not just to silent, but totally off. we are broadcasting live on c-span, and we have other esteemed members of the

journalist world here with us, filming and recording. now, each of the colleagues has special experience dealing with second terms. my colleague, dennis ross, who will lead off, first came to the white house at the beginning of a second term, the second reagan administration. in fact, his first publication at the washington institute before going into the second rage p administration, you didn't think he was that old, did you? the second reagan administration was our first ever publication titled "middle east policy planning for a second reagan administration." dennis has great experience in dealing with second administrations, did it not just with ronald reagan, but on the other side of the aisle with president bill clinton, which he saw up close from the inside.

both of those administrations had fascinating initiatives in the middle east. dennis was not involved in the most noteworthy hostages, but he was involved in the most noteworthy issue in the clinton administration, the final year of the second term. on my left is jim jeffrey, a visiting fellow at the washington institute. just retired from there, and completed the tour as ambassador in iraq. jim served as u.s. ambassador to turkey, on the front lines of two of iran's neighbors, and lest we forget, also on the front lines of two of syria's neighbors. jim had a fascinating purr much in recent time to look at two of

thee most important issues on the administration's ajeep da. jim also knows about second terms from his experience as deputy national security adviser in the bush administration, and that, of course, in that second term, we saw at least two major middle east initiatives, the iraq surge and the process so we have two second term experts to open for, and what we should look for and the second term of president obama's administration, and then i'll offer remarks of my own. first turning to dennis ross. dennis? >> thank you, rob. thank you for reminding me of my age. for all of you, i was a child prodigy. that's why i assumed that role in the reagan administration. it is true that i had the experience of seeing and planning and working through the

beginnings of seconds terms, although, i think one of the most important things to keep in mind is precisely because it's a second term, you have an administration with an established approach to the world. you may well have different personnel who come in, but, if of, in fact, it's the president coming in, the policymaker, you have a certain orientation. the orientation is not something that will necessarily change, but you can see a set of challenges to be confronted in. if you look at the obama administration, and you look at the greater middle east right now, the reality is that the three of us don't have sufficient time to go through all the things they'll confront. this is a thumbnail sketch on issues i think will be most prominent in the early going. iran, almost by definition, an issue that preoccupied the president from the beginning of the administration. it's going to be more important in 2013.

i'll explain why 2013 is a decisive year one way or the other. the arab awakening. i use the term "awakening" a posed to "spring" because i think it's been an awakening. spring implied a quick transformation, early flowering, all see this wonderful reestablishment of a new middle east, and it was going to happen in a linnier fashion, and we're going to be thrilled by it, and the fact is, to say at some point this arab achenning may not, in fact, produce a really genuine change that could be for the better, but what's worth noting is it takes a long time before it materializes, if it does. that's on the agenda to shape what the president does. syria is one form of the awakening, but a manifestation in a direction that is profoundly bad, and increasingly

looks like syria could be a failed state unless something more is done. there is the ongoing challenges of al-qaeda and north africa. there are other challenges throughout the region to be sure. there is a the whole question of peace and is a -- is an approach to two states going to be sustainable over time? there are a series of broad challenges in the middle east, and i have not mentioned one other one that could, obviously, be something to confront the administration, succession in saudi arabia which could raise a series of interesting kinds of questions. now, if you think that these are the only challenges in foreign policy that the president's going to face, of course, that's not the case. we're here to talk about the broader middle east. what happens in terms of the political change in china, its implications for orientation, not just generally, how it affects the economy, but also in the middle east, something that has to be thought about.

there's also the question of the future of the european union which will have an impact, again, not only on the economy, but could also have an impact in terms of what happens in the middle east. we could reserve some of the questions for the q&a, but what i'd like to focus on are a few of the key issues i think are most immediate and prominent. starting with iran. i think 2013 will be a decisive year. for people with long memories, say say, well, gee, people talk about iran for a long time, and every year it's supposed to be the decisive year. why do i say this year? two reasons. one, i think, actually, the impact of sanctions is profound. for the first time, it's truly profound in the case of iran. we have the supreme leader, two weeks ago, referring to the sanctions being brutal, his words. the sanctions are brutal. this is someone whose said on an ongoing basis, looked, we lived with sanctions since the beginning of the islamic

republic, the sanctions make us stronger, self-sufficient. there's a long litany of describing how the sanctions, in effect, iran turns to its benefit. now, the sanctions are brutal, and the truth is, they are brutal. look at what's happening in the iranian energy area. it's not only the fact that they are able to sell, you know, less than 50% of what they were selling before, but their production, output down to 2.6 million barrels a day, and part of the reason for that is because of the sanctions, the inability to continue to invest in their energy infrastructure, the inability to continue to pump and store oil as they shut down oil fields, may not be easy for them to recoop. look at what's happening to the currency, devaluation, and there's estimates that the currency's devalued by half every two months. think about what that means.

that means what you are buying, and when you go and buy something, cost twices as much, and what you have in the bank is worth half as much. this is bound to affect the society as a whole, and, again, look at what the supreme leader said. on more than one occasion, explicitly called for officials to stop fighting each other, and that's not the first time that's happened, but it's interesting when you look at what some of the criticisms are. when the head of the revolutionary guard criticizes the head of the central bank for the currency problem, that's interesting. why is the revolutionary guard commenting on the currency? it's not just that the speaker of their parliament attacks the iranian president, but the head of the military attacks them. the focus on their economic problems has become more acute, and in a sense, what that suggests to me is, again, they may well be increasing their interest in looking for a way out. look at the comem --

commentary they'd that's emerging, and the administration of intelligence offering an analysis suggesting that deploim sigh could make sense and it's obviously better than seeing the use of force. these are not the commentaries seen in the past. it doesn't mean that diplomacy is going to produce an outcome we want, but it means, in my mind, the chances for diplomacy working and producing something may be greater now than before. that's not necessarily the only reason or necessarily the most important reason why i say this year could be the decisive year. the reason is, even though they are under great economic strain and penalty, their nuclear program continues, and the problem from our stand point is that the president has made very clear that our objective is prevention. not containment. preventing them from having a nuclear weapon, not living with it after the fact. now, the problem is by the end of 2013, if the pace of the

current development of the nuclear program continues, we may no longer be in a position to know that we could actually prevent them from presenting the world. that means, to me, if you're objective is prevention, and by the end of the 2013, you may not know, whether, in fact, you can prevent them from presenting the world with a nuclear fate, then that increases the sense of urgency about getting something done. the combination of what the impact of sanctions have been, the reality that prevention, if it's going to have meaning, we have to act on it before the end of 2013, leads me to conclude that we will see some kind of significant diplomatic initiative by the president, by the obama administration, on the nuclear issue with the iranians because no president is going to end up using force without having demonstrated unmistakenly to the world and american public that we composed every possibility before we ended up

resorting to the use of force. what i suggest to you is the combination of the punish on the one hand, the pace of the program on the other, and the likelihood they will at least be given a way out means we'll see this come to a head. we'll find a diplomatic way out throughout the course of the year and prospect of use of force goes up dramatically. for me, 2013 is decisive on iran. second issue i want to raise is syria. what we are seeing happen with syria is a trend that looks like syria could be a failedded state. the prospect of syria becoming a failed state, given who the neighbors are, iraq, turkey, jordan, lebanon, israel, the prospect of it being a failed state and the conflict on the inside radiating outward, seeing more and more examples of that, all of that creates an increasing pressure to try to do more to affect the situation there. it's not an accident, in my

mind, that the secretary of state focused on doing more now to create an alternative, to a syria national council, producing a coherent syria opposition. my own feeling is that is one step to be taken, but there's more that need to be taken, and i think in this regard, one of the things to keep focused on is not just this emerging idea that's come out of turkey about a new way to produce a no-fly zone, meaning use patriots as a more interesting innovative creative way of possibly creating no-fly zones. that may or may not be something that gets explored. i believe the prospects goes up, and i say that because the balance of forces in the syria opposition is such that as time goes by, and the radicalism are the ones with the ones with the money and the weapons. they will become much more dominant in terms of that ole --

opposition, not serving the american interests or the straight in the region. here, again, i think the process of the administration, seeing the need to do more, is going to go up, the manifestation of that, and it's not the only one. the third area i'd like to focus on is the arab awakening with an eye towards egypt. what we see in egypt is an interesting duality of realities. on the one hand, we find the muslim brotherhood, president morsi no longer a member of the muslim brotherhood, but he surrounds himself with people who are, and the reality is today the muslim brotherhood controls institutions of the state with the exception of the judiciary. one can assume they'll make more and more of an effort to gain control over that as well, but they continue to have a very

clear ideology. anybody who think that ideology's going to disappear are kidding themselves. a dual reality that exists, you see on the one hand a reality where the president sends a letter, and after the office releases the letter, and there's a backlash from the muslim brotherhood, he denies sending the letter. it's never a really good sign when you deny a fact because you can't acknowledge the fact. when 16 egyptian soldiers killed in sigh nigh -- sinai, the muslim response was to blame. obviously, not true, obviously, creating a reality that's an alternative reality. not a positive sign. the president didn't say that, but the muslim brotherhood did say that. the they say add jews are

corrupt, and call for jihad, all israelis understand is violation. when there was a backlash, they said they didn't say it. when you deny reality, that says something about the durability of your belief system, the inability to adjust it to the real world, and that's not a good sign. there's another reality that exists at the same time, and that is a recognition that somehow, if the muslim brotherhood, and if president morsi have credibility and build it within egypt, they have to deliver, and that means addressing the economy, and that requires a certain set of imperatives. it's interesting that when the muslim brotherhood was not in power, muslim brotherhood was against the stand by because of the -- one of the reasons is the conditionality imposed. now president morsi is in favor of it, and not only prepared to accept the conditionality, butments the loan not to be 3.2

billion, but 3.8 billion recognizes they'rest there's an economic need with a need to respond to it. you had the largest delegation of the american business people going six weeks ago to egypt, led by the american chamber of commerce, meeting the leaders of the brotherhood, and they wanted to do business with you, partner with you, create an environment that makes it possible to invest. we know we need this. the plan, itself, is governed by a certain set of economic lodgic and rationality. here are two different interesting realities. the economic imperatives seem to be understood by the imperative, and they have a public to respond to. it's not just the egypt of mubarak where you discount the public. it seems to affect their thinking. that has implications for what the administration will do. it means that if we stand by

certain principles, which, in my mind, reflect practicalities, that we have an ability to affect their behavior. what's it mean in terms of principles? well, first and foremost, republic minority rights. that's at principle for us and practicality for them. if you see large numbers of the coptic christians leaving egypt, that's not exactly a source of encouragement for people on the outside to invest. if they exclude half the population, 56% of egyptian women who are illiterate, you look at the draft constitution, and there's language in there about equality which is reassuring, but others about principles on sharia which may not be as encouraging. if they maintain political pluralism, again, something

ultimately if they want to succeed, they need to, something that fits our principles, their practicality, guides us, and lastly, they have to fulfill their international obligations. first and foremost, living up with israel, and, here, again, might be our principles, but it's their practicality. who is going to invest in egypt if they look like they are trying to invite a con fron cation or a conflict with israel? the answer's nobody. the extent to which they are very much governed by the need to address their economic and needs and imperatives suggest, to me, that there is an approach that we can have, and that the administration will have, and i note that in the first 24 hours after our imbaa sigh was under assault and nothing was done, when the president called # president morsi and said you don't protect our people, you get nothing from us, low, and behold, all the inha ambitions there, not wanting to look like

the mubarak regime, not standing up on the street, giving the front to islam embodied in the video, suddenly, that disappeared, and they provided protection. that means that if we are governed by principles and practicalities, so much for turning off cell phones -- one thing i know for sure is it's not from me. you know, then i think we have a chance, i think, to try to shape what can happen in egypt with full humility. this is a story written by them, not us. the extent to which they need help from the outside, we should be prepared to provide it. we don't want a failed state in egypt, but there should be ground rules for it, something that is sr. -- very prominent for the administration and they will echo. okay. i have two more minutes? okay, two more minutes. the peace issue.

you know, one of the realities of the arab awakening is there was a chilling effect on both sides. looking at the growth of political islam, the rise of the muslim brotherhood, the impact that may have not only with regard to hamas, but the area around him, and if he thinks about making compromise, what he sees is the high likelihood this is going to produce a backlash. he gives an interview with channel 2 in israel where he speaks he's personally not going back, and he's burning effigy and administrations against him in gaza, and assumings what the consequences are if he takes those steps. that's a chilling effect on him. also, given what you see with the arab awakening, that's made him, perhaps, not surprising reasons, but act popular. flip side in israel, same thing.

you do a deal, and is it going to be durable, you know, what do you face after it, and this is a time where rather than thinking about taking big leaps forward, there's a tend sigh to think about what are the risks, and not what are the opportunities? i would say it's understandable that both sides have the view, and there's also something else. you know, the status quo will not remain static. the demographic clock keeps ticking, and the currents among palestinians says one person, one vote. i think one the big challenges for the administration is going to be how do you preserve the possibility of a two-state outcome which remains in america's interest, and remains frankly in israeli and pal stippians' interests. they never achieve their aspiration with a one-state outcome because that's not going to happen, but israel also has an interest in a two-state outcome because, ultimately, they don't have an interest in

the demographic clock dictate what israel's future will be. the key challenge for the administration is how do you preserve a two-state approach, and i think the real issue at this point is how do you contend with the greatest single problem which is disbelief on each side. they believe poll stinnians are not interested, and two staids,r it's a phased approach. palestinians look at the israelis, and they are not interested in two states, they will not vender control to us, and if they are interested in two states, why build in what should be a two state. neither one has a belief that the other the committed to two states. the challenge is how do you change that dynamic? since i said i have two minutes, i have a 14-point proposal -- [laughter] which, actually, i do have a 14-point proposal, and i could

do it in three minutes, but you want me to wait until the -- all right. i always take guidance. if you have not noticed that. there's rumors i never took guidance, but that's not true. i took it, at times. any way, the point is that if you look at iran, syria, the arab awakening, and the peace issue, that is a huge agenda for the administration in the middle east, and i have not made a reference to the transition, if we talk about the great -- i have not made a reference to the transition in afghanistan, which, by definition, this is a critical year for the administration on that, and, of course, it's a signature issue for the president. that will, obviously, be part of what is done, and then there's the one last wild card which is there are always wild cards in the middle east. every administration always faces a surprise. what you try to do in thinking about at the beginning of any term, whether it's a first term or a transition to the second

term, you try to think about way can you do to shape the land scape so that you're in a much better position to deal with surprises when they come? i'll stop there. >> great, thank you. [applause] jim? >> it's no fun following dennis, but a couch l points. first of all, i agree very much with him about this administration's follow-on second term will probably be similar to the first, perhaps not as prudent, but, i think, and that is probably a good thing, but from my own experience, the second bush administration was widely different, probably fortunate than the first administration. anything is poll out there, and so let's begin. i'll talk about the same issues

that dennis raisedded from it different perspective and go forward a bit on other issues that we're going to be looking at. first of all, job one in our diplomacy for the middle east is continuing to rebuild our economic and financial strength here apple home. this is vitally important. we see this not only in the ability to maintain our military strength upon which so much rests, but also we see this as important for something like the iran sanctions. it's thanks to the financial streps of our system that we can put banks around the world under pressure. dealing with p iran, and it's because of the relations that we have, diplomatic and energy with countries from iraq to saudi arabia that we can count on the additional production to balance the loss of iranian oil, and it's because of our own growth

in hydrocarbons productions here at home that we're able to absorb some of this and move forward. this is very, very important, and i think that we should focus on that, and i know that the obama administration will, but nonetheless, there is a famous quote that may be misattributed to leon that says you may not be interested in law, but law is interested in you. we are not interested focusing on the economy in the middle east, but the middle east, including the laws, are interested in us. the transition out of iraq led to a perception in some circles out in the field that the united states is withdrawing from the region, this is not true, because we build up not just on the military side. air defense and other support for israel, missile defense systems in turkey, very strong development of coalition military defense kates in the

gulf and continued operations against al-qaeda, but nonetheless, that is one of the first things that the obama administration's has to do is deal with this perception that on the military side we are pulling out. we're not, but the perception is out there. as dennis said, iran is critical. you went through the main reasons why iran is so focused op our attention, on why we have so much attention on it. i would just like to add that in looking at the breath as well as the depth of the problem with iran, it's impact on nonproliferation, regional state, oil markets, the world economy, which is dependent upon the price of oil, our relations with israel, the role of the security council, and our role in the security council in the u.n. system. almost everything that's important is at stake with this. this is the most critical and

most dangerous situation that the administration will be facing in the next year. looking at it, though, and while this year is critical, as den sis said, we have to realize this is not all about some misunderstanding or some fixable problem with iran not getting it about itself civil nuclear program or colliding with the international community. these are all manifestations of the long term confrontation that we, and the rest of the west and the region had with iran as least since the 1970s. this will go on, regardless of whether we get a nuclear deal or we have a strike to prevent iran from moving to the nuclear weapons capability. we're going to have to deal with this problem over the long term just as we have over the last 30 years because it flows from iran's view of its role in the region and inconsistency of that view with the view of the other

countries in the region, our values, and our role, both in the region and as a leading power throughout the world. a couple of issues related to this that we need to look at. first of all, the obama administration has done, i think, a very good job, fist of all, reaching out a hand to iran. that didn't work. then a very tough set of policies ranging from the sanctions to the military deployments in the region there are basically beefed up our capability to withstand an iranian action, and to threaten iran's nuclear capabilities if it comes to that. in addition, the president, in taking the prevention position including military force, and while they avoided red lining going closer to that, in the debates, i talked about breakthrough capacity, breakout

capacity, laying down a very, very important market. this is a very serious thing because if iran were ever to move to that point, and we were not to react, we would lose an awful lot of not just face in the region, but we'd lose a lot of support, i would predict. we have to be ready to carry that out. i sympathize with the president on the issue of red lines, although, that's debated either way. a lot of arguments one way or the other, but certainly, no administration likes to be tied down. there's a red liner or fact out there to deal with in any prevention scenario not saying when we would strike, and that is, dennis eluded to this. if iran gets a nuclear weapon, what do we do than? one argument would be if we get evidence they have a nuclear device or capability or a enough uranium to quickly enriched ewe -- uranium to enrich one of things,

a strong argument is made that we make it clear to strike under those circumstances. that's more dangerous, but, believe me, an iran with a nuclear capability that everybody recognizes is going to be very, very, very hard to contain. looking at the military side, one of the things we want to avoid, of course, is a military clash with iran from the conventional side, be it in the aftermath of a strike, be it through an accident or some other incident such as we had from 1986 to 1988 with iran. it is very, very important that, if possible, we avoid this and iranians avoid this with the impact of oil markets, straits of hormuz, but we have to be prepared to face the eventually. we have to be in a position,

militarily, to detour almost under any conditions an iranian active add venture, and if this fails, we have to win, win decisively. this is absolutely critical. it's what we did in 1998, and it had a sang wean effect. it requires continuous american attention and deployments. beginning with the january 2012 defense policy dpie dance paper, which people referred to as the pivot, the emphasis is on asia like the military emphasis. i would urge that we ensure that maintaining the air, naffed, and air and missile defense systems in the gulf region to detour, if necessary, defeat iran remains

our priority, at least through the dangerous period coming up in the year-plus ahead. finally, on iran, given the complexities of this thing, and we workedded in the white house, and we know how extraordinary difficult it is to coordinate various agencies and activities. with iran, we have energy policy, financial policy, overall economic policy, intelligence policy including covert operations, and we have, obviously, the military wing of our operations, and we have diplomacy like the nuclear account. it is very, very important this be closely coordinated on a daily level at least the sub cabinet level, and we hope the administration will look at how that can best be done. it cannot be business as usual with iran in the year ahead. there are models, dave from the

institute in the new yorker wrote about the way u.s. government organized itself at that level to deal with the reactor in syria on a daily, high level basis. the bush administration organized the iraq policy with general in another way. there's several models out there, but, again, it's important that iran not be seen as one of ten or 15 problems to deal with on a daily basis. iran is problem number one and will be prop number one for awhile. competing with iran and each other, a couple, first, syria. again, a couple other points we have to all focus on. first of all, for the longest time, people thought that the fall of assad was inevitable, and we would not have to do much to provoke it. i'm not so sure, not because i

don't think this insurgency is effective. i've been, fortunately, on the receiving end of a number of insurgencies on my career, and this is a very, very powerful one and effective one. syria committed powerful friends appearing to be ready to go to the mat to ensure the regime stays in power and maintains control over syria, and that, of course, is russia and iran. the result could be an assad that stays in power, iranian victory, not good for our simultaneous efforts to move iran to the negotiating table on nuclear weapons, and wide portions of sierra, a no man's land like somalia where militants, perhaps, probably associated with al-qaeda will find a new home. we already see this.

this is another reason why the administration needs to engage, including engauges through military means if necessary, directly or indirectly in providing weapons, things like no fly zones. we have to do more, do more urgently, or this is going to slip out of control. at best, and it's not very good, in syria, itself, at worst, we'll see an emerging sheer sueny miss sure across the middle east followed by violence and fighting in iraq and elsewhere. let me touch on iraq. it's not received too much commentary either in the debates in the campaign or even in some of the discussions about post election foreign policy priorities, but it needs to be a priority for several reasons. iraq is a success. it's a success largely because of the efforts of the united states and our allies and of the iraqi people, and it's an

important success because it's right in the middle of the middle east. it ties into every other problem from iran, shia-sueny relations, to turkey, and, above all, energy. it's a democratic state with a lot of flaws, but still a functioning democracy, and that's a good thing, and it's something we have to do our best to try to continue to encourage. the administration is putting a lot of quiet effort into this. this needs to continue. there's several serious risks. the biggest is, of course, that syria will pull iraq under as various groups go in various directions. kurds in one direction, sunni in the other, and shia in the other. so far, that's not happened, but the longer the situation in syria is allowed to continue, the more like hi that very bad scenario occurs. why we kept troops in iraq and lost 4500 troops was to main

maintain the unity of iraq which depends on democracy. that's what we have now. it needs to be supported. the other major threat is the debate, struggle, disputes between the kurds and the north and the central government under the prime minister. it's a complicated issue, but one of the factors playing a huge role is oil. oil is either the glue that will hold iraq together with kurdistan contributing to some direct to the massive increase in iraqi exports to be seen by the end of this decade. 45% of all new crude oil coming on international market is predicted to come out of iraq, mainly from the south, some from the north if all goes well. that's a big if, and that's something we have to play a huge role. we are, the administration has been engaged in the summer on working a deal currently in

place to get the kurdish oil in the north, 200,000 barrels a day exported to turkey out of pipelines crueled by the central government. it's a difficult balance, pulled in many directions. the turks play a role. the iranians are potential players in this as well. they are not happy at the increase in iraqi oil exports so this is an area where the administration needs to continue focus. on al-qaeda. dennis taw of touched on that with syria, but this remains a very, very dangerous threat. not just to us, but stability in the region. there's a new factor seen in iraq and didn't think we would see elsewhere. that is al-qaeda portraying itself as the champion of the sunni muslims against the shia muslims, again, back in 2005-2006 when they pushed this, he was under criticism from the head quarters, if you will,

about doing that, that the target should be the americans rather than shia muslim, and, in fact, by the time i was in iraq, al-qaeda was leaving us alone, and that was because we were heavily armored, but the other reason they were target of a prefacefuls the shia. we see this in syria. it's a very, very bad development, could tear the region apart. we went there twice in the balcans in boas knee -- bosnia and kosovo to resist such a split. the middle east is far more important and far more dangerous than the balkans. we have to watch this. on al-qaeda, for various legal reasons as well as political domestic reasons and diplomatic reasons, we see it as a war, but we've not done a good job explaning to the american people the implications of that. if it's a war, why then do we

put people on trial? there's answers to that. there's illegal enemy combat tents, but it's a complex issue crystallized in the criticism of the drones. we don't want to have a lack of clarity about our goals and our tools lead to a situation as seen before 9/11 where we are afraid to go after these people because we don't think we have enough legitimacy, we don't think we have enough support from the american people. right now, throughout the broader middle east and all of the areas where there's not effective government control from the mali, somalia, that area's doing better, to yemen, other places, al-qaeda, or al-qaeda linked groups pop up as a threat to the stability of the region, a threat to us, and they need to be kept under the high education pressure. i'll stop there. thank you very much. [applause]

>> let's imagine for a minute there's a courageous national security council staff member writing a memo to the president outlining policies for the second term or not a courageous staffer with a job line the up outside government in a think tank like this. he might offer the following remarks to the president. first, four broad lessons i urge you to take from your first term experience. one, as much as we want to wish it away, it's a mistake to think one can private away from the middle east and towards asia like we have just a fixed amount of bandwidth and the luxury of reapportioning it based on our preface. for the foreseeable future, we can't devoid threats and challenges emanating from the region. two, middle east politics, mr. president, reinvolves around two main threats.

one, the ambitions of iran, and, two the the spread of radical sunni extremism. this is what defines middle east politics in the early years of the 2 21 century. other issues like the palestinian conflict are important, especially important to israelis and palestinians, but they are little impact on the larger scheme of things. three. in this part of the world, perhaps elsewhere, there's few happily ever afters. what starts with hope and inspiration rarely ends that way. look at the bledless revolutio, amazing courage of protesters, and look where they are today. of course, anyone who followed the process learn the this lesson a long time ago, but you, mr. president, like everyone

else in a new administration, learns it for the figure -- first time. last, as an overall lesson, as much as words matter, whether it's the cairo speech delivered in 2009 or your repeated and important declarations on prevention of iran's nuclear capabilities, actions matter most. don't mistake the former for the latter, and, today, i just have to step out of my role for a moment because as a historian, today's the anniversary of my favorite ever presidential statement on the middle east. sen -- seventy years ago, there was a middle east. just imagine a president saying this. praise be unto you in the name of the god the compassionate, the merciful, oh, ye muslims, may the blessings of god be upon

you. it's a great day for you because, behold, we, the american, holy warriors arrived, come here to fight the great jihad of freedom. we have come to set you free. today is the 70th anniversary of the landing on north africa. imagining an american president praisihe great jihad of american freedom once again. [laughter] we don't remember that because words mean so much less than actions. all right. if those are three broad lessons, what are the three urgent issues? i won't repeat the words of my colleagues because iran nuclear negotiations in dealing with iran more generally, number one, bringing down asad as quickly as possible. number two, but the third, i add, is the following. preventing the collapse of one or more additional pro-western regimes, especially pro-western

monarchies, three at the top of the list -- bahrain, jordan, and morocco. mori row cock, mr. -- morocco figured out a strategy for survival, and jordan, however, is the most vowel network, and the one who is lost undermines u.s. expwres in multiple and immediate ways.ñi for the life of me, there's not a good explanation where the saudis provide no assistance to jordan. i can't understand why they provide no assistance today to egypt. think of what is going on in jordan and egypt today. these two countries, each of whom borders the world's most resourced rich, energy rich part of the world, today, undergoing draconian restrictions on the uses of energy. the lights out in cairo every

night at ten o'clock, and jordan has gas rations, and they live next door to saudi arabia. all right. the three most urgent issues, who are the three leaders who deserve your special attention, mr. president? well, first, let's start with the prime minister of israel. if he gets another term as prime minister, he'll be with you throughout your presidency. locked at the hip, or, perhaps, another part of the anatomy. [laughter] there's no percentage in having another four years like the first tw that you had with him. your interests, state-to-state, are confident and complementary. you don't have to love each other, but you have to have -- but you have a big agenda with each other. a big agenda requiring you to work together it is very important for benjamin netanyahu to work with you. you, of course, are the great power. israel is the small power, but you have a role to play in

building a new relationship with him as well. secondly, and i'll echo a certain fashion what jim just said. the second leader i put on the list is the prime minister of iraq. iraq is the third rail of u.s.-middle east diplomacy. no onements to talk about it in pluck because there's such bad memories from the last decade, but iraq is important. geography is destiny, and iraq's geography between iran and syria is critical to the future of the middle east and our interest in the part of the world. we have an an important role to play. he is the prime minister of a democratically electricitied government. we need to find a way to work with him better. third, building on what dennis said in passing. the third leader to focus on is not a particular person, but the next generation of saudi

leaders. as my colleague noted earlier this week, there's already been the beginning of the jump to the next generation with the appointment of a new interior men stir from the next generation of saudi princes. the remaining son of the founder may see their demise, political, as well as ac rare yal, in quick succession as next term z president. now is the time, before that happens, to build deeper understandings on strategy and reform with the leaders that will come to take their place. so, what, then, are three calamities we can prevent, and we have to think about preventing. well, i referred, a moment ago, to the demise of the kingdom of jordan. i won't go on about that, but secondly, would be the collapse of the palestinian authority. it is -- it is, of course, a bit of a luxury to think about

resolving the israeli palestinian conflict over the next four years. it would be important and a vital interest of the united states to prevent moving backwards in the israeli-palestinian relationship, and thee most dangerous back regard move is the collapse of the authority. there's important measures the united states can do to help israelis and palestinians build on the less well known, but important achievements that are underway, economic relationships, security relationships, and to help ensure that the poll say authorities stay in tack to continue to provide the potential for renewed diplomacyy in the future. the third calamity we can prevent, the emergence of a enclave in sinai. don't overlook the possibility that sinai, that buffer zone that made peace possible a generation ago, becomes the source of renewed conflict in

the years ahead. we have an important role to play working, especially with the government of egypt, and with egypt and israel together, both militarily, and in terms of investment to make sure that sinai does not become the smoal -- somalia or the source that exports instability throughout the area. what are three big initiatives we can undertake? well, here i'll repeat one that dennis referred to which is rethinking our relationship with egypt under islamist rule. our approach towards egypt, looking at the mechanics and the tools used is essentially a hold over from the mubarak era with a few band aids on it. we have not really thought through a strategy, a policy, a tool, and a method of emerging policemennation -- implementation of a new relationship with the governed

egypt supplying our aid, military relationship, and outreach to civil society -- the whole range of items. secondly, and more specifically, an initiative that's related to egypt-israel relations. there's not a #*us-egypt free trade geement given all the uncertainty in egypt within the foreseeable future, but if it is serious, egypt can reap many of the benefits of free trade through the massive expansion of the qu disirks system with -- qiz system with israel. they would lower the amount of israeli content required to be as part of the deal, but that would require the islamest president of egypt to recognize the benefits of much significantly broadened qiz relationship and to, in fact, utter the word publicly, "israel," something which he was not yet done in the official capacity. a third initiative, repairing

israeli-turkish ties. it's in the interest of the countries. i know, mr. president, you tried, once to do this, and we did not succeed, but times have changed. syria has happened, they are weakened than before, and should benjamin netanyahu be elected, he'll be stronger after the election than he was the last time we tried to do this. after politics is clarified, it's time to try this again. well, one last set of items, what are the game changers? what are the unknowns as dennis referred to that every administration has to deal with? at some point, in this part of the world, i'm sure i will succumb to a lack of adequate creativity, but here, at least, are a handful of game changers.

.. affirming what jim said a moment ago. this of course happened to president bush from an unforeseen way in 9/11 and it almost happened again with president obama with the attacks in benghazi. we should not rule out the entire range of potential

terrorist attacks and what that would do to america's relations and to america's set of priorities in the middle east. taking down an airplane, blowing up a series of embassies, attacking civilians, foreign governments as was tried in washington with the attack on the saudi ambassador, foreign governments using terrorism even on our soil. the whole range of possibilities here. let's not foreclose dealing with them. and third, a sinai clash on steroids. we saw in august of 2011 how the attempts by terrorists, the effort by terrorists to kill israelis triggered an israeli reaction. that ended up with it egypt israel peace treaty being this far way from total collapse. i measure this as being the signal on the door of the at the israeli embassy in cairo outside of which the protesters were

hanging down the door to attack the american israeli diplomats on the other side of the door. that was when the military control. today it's a different situation. another clash triggered by terrorists seeking to promote egypt/israel conflict eminently possible. we have to prepare now to prevent the spiral of escalation. forth, we have warned about this, the potential for wmd used in syria and the deployment as we have promised of massive numbers of american soldiers, perhaps in concert with troops from other nations into the conflict in syria. this would be a dramatic change on the ground. it would transform not just the syrian conflict that would transform your hopes, your hopes for keeping american boots off the ground in the middle east throughout your second term. fifth, a moment perhaps of

opportunity. the green movement redux. let us not rule out the possibility that as election approaches in iran or some other charting offense, there is a resurgence of popular call for change on the streets of tehran. let's be prepared this time. differently than we were prepared last time and taking advantage of this and hopefully moving iran in a different direction. and finally something that jennifer referred to, the potential for surprise iranian break out. this needs to be prevented at all costs mr. president. so far, as you have noticed, i've avoided in this memo using the word legacy. not once. but remember this. if you try to resolve all the other issues or if you try to fix the israeli-palestinian conflict for example, you may fail and people will never remember it. after all, you will be the sixth

president in a row to try and fail to solve the israeli-palestinian conflict. but if on your watch iran breaks out and achieves a nuclear weapon capability, this is what will be on your epitaph. you are the first president to be on his watch when iran got the bomb so this president, these are my suggestions and i'm going to take a vacation. thank you all very much. [applause] we will open the floor for your questions. if you can please identify to whom you are making the question and i will ask my colleagues to come up here to respond for the benefit of the cameras, to respond to the microphone. all the way to way back, sir. there are microphones that are around. [inaudible]

[inaudible] [inaudible] >> i have no idea whether that's true. i would be very surprised for it to be the case. the administration has plenty of highly-skilled people who know the issue and are immersed in it so it's going to be a negotiation at some point and i'm quite confident that will include those people. a i think there will be negotiation. as i said thee there will be some kind of diplomatic initiative that will be designed to test the proposition that the iranians want only what they say

they want, meaning the iranians say they want nuclear power and i can envision a kind of proposal that will allow them to have nuclear power but with restrictions that would revamp them from being able to convert that into a nuclear weapons capability. number one. number two, i'm quite convinced the president very seriously would like to achieve this diplomatic means but i'm also persuaded that there was a debate within the administration, the president thought about it very carefully in the debate was between prevention and containment. he made a conscious decision for prevention and once he made that decision he also understood that implication that if diplomacy fails we may go down the path towards use of force. would he act on it? i think absolutely you would he would have gone a but like anyone he would like to choose his diplomatic means. ultimately her best chance of achieving diplomatic means is continuing to have a pressure filled, making it clear when it comes to diplomacy we want to

succeed that the iranians have more to lose than anyone else. [inaudible] >> dr. satloff suggested that duly reelected president that concluding peacefully with israelis and palestinians with the two-state solution is no longer a priority. what in your opinion, what could happen if we inject life into this process and give it priority? thank you. >> as i said i had a 14-point proposal and now you that you have asked me for it i will -- [laughter] look, i think the key is how do you preserve the possibility of a two state outcome when you have such disbelief on the part

of -- and specifically what i was trying to get at is its disbelief about the commitment on the other side to the two states in the idea somehow you are going to fail to make peace in the context of complete disbelief is an illusion so somehow you have to try to restore belief or try to find some way to get each site a reason to take a second look and that is why i would like, what i suggest when i outlined these 14 points, i don't want them to be doing it unilaterally because i think what we have seen from unilateralism and the only thing it breeds is the worst kind of unilateralism. we need to restore is the faith. there has not been a loss of confidence. that is too trivial. competency rebuild and you restore. when you lose faith that fundamental and somehow you have to work hard to rebuild that. so i would like these 14 points be more designed for the agenda of the conversation because the

conversations they have today are mostly conversations where they talk past each other. on the israeli side the kind of agenda items that i would like to see them be prepared to discuss with the palestinians would be first to be prepared to offer compensation and the logic is again if the other side is convinced that all you are about is preserving your control and beginning to build as a way of saying no that's not the case. second start building housing within israel that would accommodate those who would leave. again it seems the same kind of message but also sends a message to the unsettled. those were the forced out of gaza were not taking care. the israeli definition of the blocks is 8% of the western barrier and the palestinian definition is typically smaller but that is what they should

negotiate about. when you build only the in the blocks to send a message. we mean what we say and we are tilting in the blocks in that part of the block that we figure will be part of israel. fourth, 60.1% of the west bank where the israelis retain civil responsibility. appellants' innings have limited access their and yet to give you an example of the significance notches in terms of land mass but the economic seriousness all of the rock quarries in the west bank are -- as you know one of the bigger industries for palestinians on the west bank if stone masonry that they don't and owned any of the rock quarries. i would say obtain greater economic activity and area c. and it doesn't threaten security but it sends two messages. one israel means what it says bricklin the prime minister says we want to rule the palestinians, it's a way to

signal you mean what you say and secondly in a time when the palestinians economically need much more underpinning to enhance their economic position, this would also be something that would help them economically. and fifth, area b is 21.7% of the west bank, proving i have not spent any time on this issue at all. and you know, they are the palestinians have some responsibility for law and order but they don't have responsibility for security. they have the police presence and i would like to see the police presence which has coordinated. i would like to see the police presence biltmore and allowed to expand. again some sending the same message about how they will have control over their own future. six this area a map. area a is where the palestinians have civil and security responsibility. the israelis on occasion go back

into area a and they go in for security reasons. this was raised with prime minister fayyad. would you come to an agreement on a set of criteria and affair met the israelis don't come back and from the security standpoint and if they they're not that they have a justification to come back in. those are six steps and i have a seven step but it's mutual so i want to save it. on the palestinian side, put israel on the map so you can find israel on the map in any palestinian textbook or web site. you can find palestinian maps that shows israeli settlements you don't find israel on a map so i would like to put israel on a map. the second step stop the incitement. the idea that when they square is named in a local town, local city council is doing this

decision, the palestinians have said a message, we are not about that. we named the square after someone who kills israelis that we are not going to celebrate that. third start talking about two states for two peoples and acknowledge there's a jewish connection to the land and jerusalem. you don't have to go beyond that but acknowledged that israel doesn't undercut palestinian rights but acknowledges the reality that you recognize the israeli claims. forth, condition your people for peace. here i'm going to quote. used to say to mail the time, i'm not asking for the moon. i'm not asking for the palestinians to spell out all their concessions. i'm asking them to take the template. he talked peace -- and what it means we have hard decisions to make. the fifth step five or six years ago abu mazen said when asked the question where where's the say the palestinians should live

in squalor conditions? what he was getting at is refugee camps. why should we rebuild the refugee camps? i am saying now you don't have to say anything. just do it her costar rebuilding the camps in the west bank that represent a percent of of the population of the west bank and start rebuilding them with permanent housing and allow those who live in the camps to move out at a want to move out. the six step is something the palestinian should do for themselves but it sends a message to the israelis and that is continued to build your state under the rule of the law in keeping with demands. the demands. the demonstrations that took place about four weeks ago were over rising prices, economics and corruption. the better it is for them but it sends a message to the israelis about the kind of state they're going to be. the seven step is a mutual step or be side. the only israelis and palestinians soldiers so it's

very easy to dehumanize and demonize when those are the only ones easy and obviously the relationship between them and their soldiers is not the perfect relationship to put it mildly. on the israeli side two months ago we saw a -- took place in jerusalem and those who were involved, look at their facebook pages. they said really awful things. the israeli government, every leader condemned what happened but what do you have his israelis never see the palestinians at all basically and what i would like to do as i would like to see starting in third or fourth grade and exchange of classrooms or exchange of kids. not bringing people here but there. i want kids to start seeing each other because they see each other as people and if we are going to change the dynamics, the dynamic of disbelief about each side coming to two states

this is where you start. as i said if the two of us it out and this is an agenda for them. they can have other ideas but if they were to say all right you take that step and we'll take a step and you begin to create a virtuous cycle and that can change the dynamic. anyone as i said he thinks that you are going to go ahead at this point and suddenly create an outcome when there is complete disbelief on the part of both and you see it by the way and what is happening to the polling. the pulling up until yuriko still showed very strong majorities on each side in favor of two states but also at the same time not believing it would take place. now those numbers are dropping on each side and that is symptomatic of the disbelief and political leaders operating in the conflict of disbelief are unlikely to take dramatic steps. if you think at the end can be created in that context you are

kidding yourselves. >> i just wanted to follow up on what you are saying because it seems to me like this 14-point plan, obviously you've had these ideas for a well and have formed the basis for some kind of u.s. presentation of a possible step and ultimate leading to a -- between you and ambassador jeffrey, the middle east peace process obviously while important doesn't seem to be exactly the first priority when you look at what is going on in the middle east right now and i'm wondering if that is because there is fatigue, if it's because we have so many more pressing interest between iran, syria and the growing islamic threats or is it because the parties are not ready for a deal? what is holding this up considering on the second day of president obama's first term he

pledged to make this a priority? >> well i think that obviously an effort was made and it did not materialize but then he did get swamped by a lot of other things. what is one of the most frustrating realities for palestinians today? that no one is paying attention to them. look at the region itself. the gulf states are focused on iran, on syria, primarily, the emergence of the muslim brotherhood in egypt. whatever they say they are focused primarily domestically, so you have all these other issues. you have the arab awakening and you have this powerful new reality that is unfolding in the region but nobody knows exact he what it's going to mean. and it has consumed everybody's

attention. but you know, the reason i obviously have been thinking about this is because the issue is not going away. we have an interest in not just letting it reached the point where the disbelief become so powerful that it becomes difficult to do anything at all. i think they're huge challenges throughout the region but i think it's a mistake to lose sight of this one. >> dr. kumar to my left. >> thank you so much for the presentation to the ambassador and dr. satloff. i've two questions. first with regard to the inflation with with the death of al qaeda and what we have seen in libya from mali and north africa and aqap and so on and so forth. when will this realization set in and when will these pronouncements be made that we

still have a fight with al qaeda? that is one question. secondly they -- dominated egypt with u.s.. what implication does it have for relationship with israel and allying ray israeli concerns that the bilateral relationship with the u.s. will not impact the u.s. israeli relationship which is the most important relationship? >> i will try the first one. there is no doubt that al qaeda is much more on the ropes now than it was five or 10 years ago. this has been a success of both the bush and the obama administration's. the death of bin laden was the logical conclusion of a campaign that began almost a decade ago of targeting senior leaders.

the bush administration got zarqawi and diallo province in iraq in 2006 i think and then bin laden and many of the other leaders have been basically the movement has been decapitated. the problem is that the movement has morphed into a different direction. probably it is nowhere near as dangerous to us now as it was then but as we have seen in yemen in some of these areas these ungoverned areas where they can set up a presence people, and, in that case, from america and they direct its threats not just the local government although that is certainly one of the problems, nor to the shia sect but also to get on airplanes and kill americans here in the homeland. so therefore, there is still a direct threat. it's not the same level as we were on her right after 9/11 but it's still something we have to watch.

secondly at the same time, it is a threat to the region as it always was but a particular it is a threat to the shia-sunni divide and give it a real role in this is what we don't want. this is a movement, this is a region that keeps looking for some kind of cost that it can attach itself to to allow it's very extreme form of sunni islam with violence to capture the masses, to capture the territorial space and that is what we have to watch. yes, think we have a good set of policies against it. the problems is those policies themselves are controversial because they require using a mix of from a legal standpoint and to some degree drones in the air and f-16s and such, military means, against the problem that also involves criminal activities and normally there is a division in the rule of law between the two. the problem with illegal in many -- enemy combatants is

exactly that, that there is a blurred line between the two. therefore, we have to change that line. we can't change fundamentally a policies. we have to explain why we have to lock these people up. guantánamo, both presidents bush and president obama wanted to close it but that was for propaganda purposes because we were getting a black eye because people didn't understand the problem. that is like a p.o.w. camp. in addition many of those people also need to be tried legally either in a military commission or a u.s. court. those are very important distinctions but nonetheless we have to explain a complicated issue to the american people and to our allies around the world. if we can do so we can continue the sophisticated but somewhat controversial tactics working with our allies to keep organizations under pressure. if we find her basic tools are

being eroded because of concerns, because it's a polemic pressure and such these are going to sprout up all over the place. >> the there is no doubt that the government as israel is concerned about the development in egypt. i think if you look at the offense in alaska several months, they have seen everything going on in the region and they have decided to try to keep their powder tribe about certain things the government of egypt has done or not done vis-à-vis the israeli peace treaty because it knows that there is even more urgent issues and does not want to distract attention from those issues to their concern about egypt but israel is quite concerned about egypt.

there is an assessment for the foreseeable future of the islamist government of egypt is here to stay. one can't really wish away the business of this government had president marcy who showed rather impressive degree of bureaucratic and political agility in and putting his own people in place in the military, when that changed -- change came in august. there was deep concern inside of israel not just because of the change and the removal of people who had a relationship with israel but for about 10 days the israelis had no one to talk to. the only channels that exist today between egypt and israel are the military and intelligence channels and for 10 days as this was being sorted out, the israelis had no one to call. that in and of itself was a huge

red warning sign going off. now all this being said, it really does come down to this fundamental question of whether, not whether the egyptian leadership is going to give up its theology but whether the objective of political success will trump the objective of ideological purity and what a political success. political success is making sure you're not having a war near borders. political success is making sure the international community's sense billions of -- and political success is making sure that people see results for their elections. political success is making sure that hamas and gaza is not governing the relationship with egypt that egypt governs the relationship with hamas. if this is the route the government of egypt pursues,

then the potential for working relationship with israel as possible. if it tries to achieve political success by ideological means, then we in the united states will be in a very difficult position and the israelis will be an even more difficult position. one last note is that we are about to see the completion of the security fence and when i say security fence of people think what is going up between the west bank are part of the west bank and pre-67 israel. it's all mired in politics etc. etc.. the security fence i'm talking about is the one along the egypt israeli border which has unanimous support among the israeli political system and it has gone up with lightning. lightning speed. is likely to have a powerful impact on the potential for terrorism emanating from inside of egypt and israel.

over here, you had a question earlier. no? okay, howard. >> 10 years ago we were frantically trying to buy at -- from bosnia. the question i have is if we do consider lethal support to the syrian freedom fried -- freedom fighters had we manage especially when we have no presence at all? had we managed to control where this go and how it might affect us in the future? >> when i made reference to seeing the need to provide assistance, i didn't say manpads. one of the things we have to do is we have to not just identified the test those we would be prepared to support. it shouldn't be a task.

by that i mean who is prepared to make what promises and who lives up to the promises they make? do they keep an inventory of what we provide them? we can create an accountability. if they can account for what we provide them, obviously we won't provided to them. i would start by providing them manpads but i would be prepared to provide them antitank missiles and by the way one of the things if they had antitank missiles they would find it easier to take over some of the airbases in which case that would be another way to prevent having to contend with a airpower. but i also think these new ways of looking at how you can do no-fly without actually having to operate on syrian airspace, i think there is a way to and obviously there has been a process underway now but i think we can identify those who are prepared to make certain

commitments. we can see how well they live up to their commitments. we can create our own measures of what they have to do and what we provide them will be a function of their response and their delivery. >> if i can come in on that for just a second. the drafter of -- rob satloff would pick up on this point and say picking up on dennis is risk and opportunity are two sides of the same coin, there's always going to be downsides to any course of action you take and being a government employee you get them thrown at you. ..

general insecurities in the entire region. now the number two opec oil exporter. sure, bad things happen because we didn't get things right in 2003, does that mean going in in 2003 whenever he would discuss with such a bad name. that's of any policymaker has to look at. there's an upside as well as the downside to everything. >> man right here and one half to close. [inaudible] relating to what he just talked about and that is the area.

ambassador jaffer was advocating the u.s. intervened militarily in syria. i'm thinking now of this administration there's really no appetite. part of the american for another war. if we do get involved militarily, how do we decide who to support? disliked like to be a hydra headed monster, which were eaten up by other heads among these oppositions leaders. how do we decide who to support and be on the right side? thank you. >> are you doing? it's good to see you again. thanks for the question of which is a tough one to answer. again, you're right about the american people. we need to look at this because i've been through this now twice. i've been in government after vietnam and after the adventures of the first decade of the century. i would make a distinction that

i think there's a pupil the other day who made that decision. when given the choice between dealing powerfully with iran's nuclear threat or avoiding at all costs latour action, the american people in october went from having 1850, 51 to the 56% to take action for a 46 to roughly 40%. so that spreads open from 6% to 12%. what's going on here? at think this is a mistake related libya to some degree. with the american people don't want is hundreds of thousands of ground troops committed to a nationbuilding with shooting exercise, with no exit strategy and what the argument being we have to be here until the kind

of look like norway and resolve their problems. i'm at the american people on that one. every day, the american people through their elected leadership for conduct the war against al qaeda and we don't hear other than people concerned about the legal things on the policy margins of this, any complaint from the american people. i'm not advocating ground troops. i'm advocating delivering weapons and delivering one or another form of air power or other military power that can be done off site to let the ground troops who are the insurgents to the fighting. that's what we did in bosnia in 96 to 95 that there is. the surge in kosovo in 1990. what we did in afghanistan in the 1980s. in office places you you do with people implicit. if anyone says they can pick ones to quote governor romney, who share our values or i can pick the one who don't, forget

it. it's going to be confusing. perform to make mistakes. at the end of the day coming to want to see every in scoring a huge victory? you want to see syria turn into another big volusia? i don't. there's no other way america can play a role. [inaudible] there has been at least 11 waivers. we are still not going after the central bank of the iran. so that the administration really going to be serious about 19 sanctions really heard because they are dealing with the regime, which i don't think cares that much. >> the administration was given the right to waive sanctions on

countries come actually sanctions on being specifically if those countries reduce significantly the oil imports from iran. because of the sanctions specifically in the fact that the administration had thanks to the congress giving it to the administration that flexibility can iran's exports have dropped from well over 2.2 or 2.4 million barrels a day to less than 800,000 barrels. that is a huge success. it's a success because the administration was given the tools to deal in this real world. so i think that's okay and i think the administration has used a defect ugly. in terms of the central bank, the central bank is sanctioned. any dealings of central banks and oil trade or other trade can lead to sanctions, absolutely. >> very good. dennis, jim, thank you are a

match. as i said, we'll be back long talking about more specific issues in the transition. thank you for joining us for today's event. [applause] >> there is a main meet in yesterday's results for us to find a way to work together on solutions to the challenges we all face as a nation. by today's not want confrontation, but one of conviction. in the weeks and months ahead we face a series of tremendous challenges and great opportunity. >> american people want us to work together. republicans are mystery together. democrats want us to work together. they want to balance the approach to everything, but especially the situation we have dealing with the huge deficit and taxes are a part of that.

>> espn programming is good because they try to cover both sides of the issues and the moderators especially on the "washington journal" do a good job of staying detached and not getting into offering their opinions. they're very comprehensive about covering both the house and the senate and the other woodrow wilson and other republicans here in d.c. that i wouldn't normally be exposed to.

>> chinese president, hu jintao, addressed members of this congress. he's stepping down after 10 years in office. this event, courtesy of china central television, commonly known as cctv is just over nine minutes. [speaking chinese] >> translator: now on behalf of the chinese committee, the national congress party of china. my copies of the reports have been issued to you. i will outline its main points. [speaking chinese] transcode the 18th national

congress is one of great importance in china has entered the feuding of a society in all respects. the underlined team of congress as to how high the guidance of deng xiaoping represents in the scientific -- the policy of the reform. by the time all difficulties can march on the path as subtle as some with chinese characteristics. it's a moderate society and all the

[speaking chinese] >> translator: i will address you. over 90 years, a party established and let the people of all ethnic groups of the country churning the backers of china increasingly prosperous new china. and if a prospect for the great renewal of the chinese nation. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: we are all proud of the historical achievement and we are all the conviction of the power -- and

more responsibility of the party. as the party's condition continues to undergo changes. the unprecedented opportunity for development with challenges before. so the whole party must keep in mind the trust of the people. and continued development in a scientific way to promote social harmony and improve the complete lawrie bestowed. [applause] [speaking chinese]

>> translator: i worked the past five years and the basic experience be obtained in the past 10 years. over the past five years, we've marched on the path of socialism we've overcome numerous difficulties and achieve new successes in a moderately price parity in society. it makes major achievements -- the economy has developed. they have significantly improved any strides have been made in developing democracies in the league of nations. development of the culture has

enriched the news page. and a new state with the national defense related to affairs that have been further strengthened. over the past five years. the programs has been registered and is the advanced nature. multiple results have been achieved in the parties theoretically. the achievements have been made and scientific development in major progress has been made in conducting reform. while further extended, major progress has also been made and sharpening party officials and

new progress has been registered and qualified professionals. we have intensified as citizens to encourage party members and organizations in their work. community level party organizations are strengthened and new progress being made. on the other hand, we must do much improvements and there's lots of difficulties and problems. it is an unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development remains with many systematics in the way of development in the scientific state. developments in urban and rural areas between regions is still

large and so our income disparities. sm community level, party organizations are weak and seven prone in the fight against corruption remains a serious voice. we must take these difficulties and work harder to reflect them. [speaking chinese] >> translator: are worked in the past five years is an important part of our endeavor to be a moderately prosperous society in the national congress party. in at least 10 years we have seized and made the most of the important. of the opportunities, especially the later challenges to a new stage of development.

over the past 10 years, we have achieved new historic success and a foundation for completing a moderately prosperous society in its own respects. during this period, it continues economic developments and improvements in democracy and increasing prosperity. since we have worked hard to ensure and improve the people's well-being and politics than ever before. and all of this is widely recognized in these historic success is under the correct guidance of the relying program and experience have been achieved on a firm foundation laid in the founding of the new china in 1949 --

[inaudible] [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: here, on behalf of the central committee of the communist party of china, i wish to express our heartfelt thanks to the people in china, to the democratic parties cannot people's organizations and all walks of life compared in the region, the macao region and to our foreign friends who support china's modern civilization. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: the most

important achievement in our endeavors in the past 10 years as they formed the scientific development and we followed in the guidance of marxism in series. admit congress on the basis of practice developed closely connected to new ideas and viewpoints of chinese tourists ask. the scientific work on development was integrating marxism of the contemporary china and the underlying features of our time. it fully embodies the marxist methodology for development. this theory provides new scientific answers to the major

questions about what kind of development china should achieve in the new environment and how the country should achieve it. it represents a new level of the loss of socialism with chinese coterie sticks. our development is the latest achievements in developing this is done of theories of socialism. it is a civilization of the communist party of china and a powerful, theoretical guiding all of the country together with mexican and some in the important represent the development is a theoretical guidance the party message here to at one time. as they advanced towards the future, it is of major immediate significance and historical

significance. the cause of the modernization into every aspect. the whole party must mark purposefully make the social development the top priority and applying the outlook on development and mark purposefully take people first is a core requirement of applying the development and mark purposefully make in pursuing comprehensive balance the basic requirement for applying the scientific mark purposefully holistic approach as a way of thoroughly applying the scientific development. seeking truth for a fax and being realistic are the salient

features of the scientific development. the whole party must engage in practice and make changes and must respond and follow the aspirations of the people and explores other socialist but china scared to mistakes. we must ensure an china has the driving force for developed and an overlap a bright future for developing socialism for the party and the people. [applause]

[speaking chinese] >> translator: achieving a victory for socialism with chinese tourists ask, the issue of what path we take is of vital importance for the survival of the party cover future of the chinese nation and well-being of the people. exploring the path to national renewal in china that was economically and culturally backward is an extremely arduous facet. over the past 90 plus years, relying firmly on the people in adapting the genesis marxism to china's conditions in the underlying trend of the times, our party has pursued its own course independently. during hardships and suffering, we've achieved great success in development and reform and created and developed socialism

in the chinese characteristics that fundamentally change the future and destiny of the chinese people and nation. the parties first generation of central collective leadership's of course led the whole party and the people of all ethnic groups in china in completing the new democratic revolution, carrying a socialist transformation and establishing the basic system of socialism, thereby accomplishing the most profound and greater social transformation in chinese has three. this created the fundamental prerequisite and systemic condition for development and progress in contemporary china. in the course of socialist development, the party developed distinctively creative theories despite fears that accent went through, thus providing invaluable experience as a less

and material basis for launching the great initiatives of health and social chinese tourists ask in a new historical. here at the second generation of central collective leadership with deng xiaoping and china's experiences in building socialism, both positive and negative. on the spaces on the experience of socialism, there may be historic decision to shift the focus of the party over country's economic development in pursued the policy of reform and opening up. the appreciation of the underlying goal of socialism in the basic line with the primary socialism are taken on growth and building socialism with chinese characteristics.

the basic questions in this regard is a great initiative of building socialism with chinese characteristics to successfully launch the party's third-generation central collective leadership and let the whole party of the people of all ethnic groups in china in here and see the basic theory and line. standing a severe test will the complex domestic and international development is major setbacks in world socialism but upon socialism with chinese characteristics. based on china's new realities, they reaffirmed the party's basic program and its basic experience, said the goal of reform and develop a basic framework for achieving this goal. developing a socialist market economy they reaffirmed the basic economic system and system

of income distribution in the primary stage of socialism by usher in a new phase in carrying out all of the reform with the great new undertaking, thus advancing socialism to chinese characteristics into the 21st century. the party central committee has seized this important. a strategic opportunities provided innovation in practice to institutional building in the course of building a moderately prosperous society and our respect. we have emphasized the need to put people first and pursue comprehensive balance sustainable development was called for building a harmonious socialist society and speaking of ecological process. we've adopted overall implementing steps for advancing the cause of socialism with chinese characteristics. we strive to ensure and improve the people's well-being, promoted social awareness

injustice to build a harmonious world turned in the governance capacity. we have upheld socialism with chinese characteristics from their historical starting points. the 30 plus years with continuous explanation for reform and opening up the great banner of socialism with chinese characteristics and rejected both the old policy and any attempt to expand socialism and taken it on this task, the path of socialism with chinese characteristics. the t. series is socialism or chinese characteristics of a socialist system with chinese characteristics of the fundamental accomplishments to make that the party and people the course over the past 90 plus years. we must cherish these accomplishments and continue to enrich them.

[speaking chinese] >> translator: in building socialism with chinese tourists ask, we base ourselves on the base realities that china is the primary stage of socialism. our overall approach is to promote economic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress. our general task is to achieve socialist marketization in the great renewal of chinese nations. developing socialism that china scared to mistakes is a long-term arduous task of historic that we must be prepared to carry out the great struggle with new historical features. the necessarily adhere to socialism of chinese tourists ask, develop it as required and constantly enriching both practice and gary can have the distinctive natural features and keeping up with the times. to achieve a victory for chinese

characteristics and their new historical conditions, we should have a firm grasp of the basic requirements and share convictions of whole party and the people of all ethnic groups in china. we must maintain the people's principal position in the country. we must continue to release and develop the productive forces they must preserve and reform and opening up even the sacred social fairness and this. they must strive for common prosperity. we must promote social harmony. we must pursue peaceful development. we must uphold the leadership of the party. we must be soberly aware that china is still the primary stage of socialism and will always remain so.

the basic condition of china has not changed, nor has the principal problem in our society. that is, to meet the ever-growing material and cultural needs of the people with backward social production and china's international position is the largest developing country in the world. we must bear in mind any other circumstances the paramount reality that china remains in the primary stage of socialism come a long remain so in base ourselves on this reality in pursuing all of our endeavors of reform and development. the party's basic line is the lifeblood of the party and country. we must adhere to the central task of economic develop and come the two basic points of the four cardinal principles and the policy of reform and opening our great endeavor to develop socialism with chinese mistakes, which is neither looked down upon ourselves.

we must take solid steps to achieve a victory for socialism with chinese characteristics. as long as we remain true to our ideal, never vacillate and or relax or act recklessly. the tenacity and results will surely complete the building of a moderately prosperous and all respects of the communist party of china celebrates in turn china into moderate socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious. when the people's republic of china marks the whole confidence in our series and our system. [applause]

[speaking chinese] >> translator: the moderately prosperous society with reform and opening up. but the current international domestic environment show that china remains in their period of opportunities for development, which must be achieved. we have a correct understanding of the changing nature and condition of the opportunities respond to who had the challenges and advantages to run the future as a moderately prosperous society and all respects. [applause] based on china's actual economic development, we must work hard

to meet the requirements while working to build a modern prosperous society in all respects of the 16th and 17th national congress of jakarta you. i follows, the economy should secede development to measure progress should be made in changing the growth and the bases in making china's development more balanced coordinated and sustainable, it's a 10 gdp and per capita income for urban and rural residents. people have democracy should expand the country's power, leaping standards and major progress should be made in an anchorman to a.

the respects must be met with greater political courage. [inaudible] and this part on notions and systems to pursue development in a scientific way. we should set up a widely developed, scientific and affect a free-market system to ensure the operating institutions in the sack areas of actions. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: completing a modern society in all respects in the party must work to reach this goal. the stay should give more supporters to rural areas to accelerate the reform but their capacity for development and

standards. we should encourage good conditions to keep taking the lead and pursue the localization and make contributions of the nationwide reform and development. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: forthcoming storage and improvement of socialist market economy and the change of the growth model, taking economic development is a central task is vital to national renewal and development still holds the key to addressing all the problems we have in china. only by promoting sustained and sound anomic development can we say a solid prosperity. improving the people's well-being and social harmony and stability, we must

unwaveringly adhere to the strategic thinking of development accounts. [applause] in contemporary china, pursuing development in a scientific way best embodies the thinking that only development accounts. taken in pursuit of development in a scientific way as the underlying guideline and accelerating to change of the growth models as a major task in a strategic choice we've made for promoting china's overall developments in response to changes in both domestic and international economic development. we should speed up the creation of a new growth model and assure the development has improved quality and performance. we should fire all types of market participants with new vigor for development, increase motivation for pursuing innovation driven development,

establishing a system for developing moderate industries and create a favorable for developing the economy, taking the steps to enable us to sustain long-term development. we should keep carrying out industrialization and a new way and advancing i.t. application urbanization, agricultural, marketization to promote integration of i.t. application, interaction between industrialization, urbanization and coordination between urbanization, agriculture, modernization, thus promoting industrialization, i.t. application, urbanization and agricultural marketization. specifically, need to focus on the following five. the economic structure reform across the board. deepening reform is crucial for

accelerating the change of the growth model. the underlying issue we face an economic structure reform is how to strike a balance between the role of the government and that of the market and we should follow more closely the rules of the market and better play the role of government. we should unwaveringly consolidate and develop the public sector of the economy to allow public ownership to take diverse forms and invest my state capital in industries and key fields that comprise the lifeline of the economy and are vital to national security. we should certainly enhance the vitality of the state insect or the economy and its capacity to leverage the economy. at the same time, we must encourage support and guided development of the nonpublic sector and ensure the economic entities under all forms of

ownership have equal access to factors of production in accordance with the law to compete on a level playing field and are protected by the law of equal. we should improve and accelerate the reform is a fiscal and taxation system. we should deeply reform the financial system, improve supervision cinema slate from the financial innovation from ensure financial stability. second, implement a strategy for innovation driven development. scientific and technological innovation provide strategic support for raising productive forces and the overall national strength. we must give it top priority over national development. we should powerpad civic innovation to catch up with global advances. we should increase capacities for making original innovation integrated for making photo innovation on the basis of

observing advances and oversee science and technology companies greater instances on making motivation for collaboration. should deeply or from the system for managing science and technology to speed up the development of the national innovation system, which is a system of innovation in which surprised us play a leading role in enterprises university in the research institutes were together. it's a knowledge-based innovation system of science and technology projects and implement strategy concerning intellectual property rights. third, carry a strategic adjustments that economic structure. this is a major goal of accelerating the change of the growth model. we must strive to remove major structural barriers to sustained economic development with focus on improving the industrial structure, promoting development between the regions and advancing urbanization.

we should firmly maintain the strategic focus of boosting domestic demand to be that the establishment of a long-term mechanism for increasing consumer demand and expand to domestic market. we should focus on developing the real economy is the first foundation of the economy. we should adopt policies and measures to better facilitate the settlement of their real economy, we should promote the sound growth of strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing industries to speed up the transformation of upgrading traditional industries and extend the service sector, especially modern service and is trees. we should continue to implement the strategy for regional development and fully leverage

the comparative advantages of different regions to increase support for a revolutionary basic areas, border areas and poor areas. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: integrate urban and rural development. resolving issues to rural areas of the number one priority for integrating urban and rural development provides the fundamental solution to these issues. it should better balance urban and rural development and promote common authority. we should increase policy support to boost will prosperity and encourage the population to participate in marketization on it offputting and sharon is for us good wishes should speed up development of modern cockup

ulster, raise the overall production capacity of agriculture and ensure for the purity and an effective supply of major agriculture products in china. we should work to build and rural areas, carry out programs of poverty alleviation through development of working conditions. we should uphold and improve the basic system for operations and establish a new type is and for intensive agricultural operations is specialized for organizing commercialize. we should speed up improvements and mechanisms for promoting integrated, urban and rural development and from a new type of relations between industry and rural areas in which industry promotes agricultural urban area in support roles of devoted agriculture to benefit each other. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: said, promote

all developed improvements to china's open economy. in response to new developments in economic globalization, we must implement a more strategy to the open economy so permitted mutual benefit and distant versified, developed from a secure and efficient. we should move faster to orient the economy grow to meet china's open economy better structured and expanding scope to yield greater returns, which make innovations in the mode of opening up to attach equal importance to export and import and make full use of our overall advantageous position in utilizing foreign capital and make better use of such investments. we should encourage chinese companies to expand overseas presence at a faster pace and make overall planning for bilateral, multilateral, regional assembly shall

corporations to be better able to defuse international economic risks. we must affirm confidence of winning the tough battle of deepening reform and economic structure in support and accelerate the change of the growth model to increase vitality and funding. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: get into the path of political reforms, chinese characteristics and promoting reform of the structure. people's democracy has always been hogtied by the party to perform the political structure is an important part and we must continue to make both active and prudent record of the political structure and people's democracy more extensive, following scope. we must ensure the leadership of

the party, decision of people of the government. to guarantee the fundamental position of the people and reach the goal of enhancing the vitality of the party and country and keeping the people motivated. wished expands socialist country based on the rule of law and promote socialist, political programs. we should improve the way the party exercises leadership in the governance to ensure that these two people and effectively governing the country. we should attach greater importance to improving and diversifying democracy to ensure people can not democratic elections, decision making in the administration to the law.

the important role and the country's governance and social management. uphold the unity and authority of the country's ecosystem and ensure that people prescribed to the socialists, political system. to promote political progress in the form of the political structure, we need to concentrate on the following. first, support and ensure the exercises state power by the people through the state congress. we should support the u.s. congress and their communities include state power and exercise and legislators of the policymaking and personal employment and dismissal powers in accordance with the law and strengthening organization in the nation of legislative work

in stepping up their oversight of governance on the proportion of community levels to people's congresses, particularly those elected to demand workers, farmers and intellectuals to be raised as deputies from government officials to be reduced in the offices should be established. to improve the system of socialist conservative democracy, we should improve the institutions are conservative democracy and promote a level of institutionalized development. extensive consultation should be carried out for issues related to economic and social development at specific problems involving the people's interest through state power and the

chinese political conference, political parties, organizations and other channels. the chinese people's political consultants conference should serve as the major channel for conduct conservative democracy, improve system of the democratic and participation in this deliberation and a better job in coordinating relations and making proposals in the rural interest of the country. we should strengthen the consultation with the democratic parties, conduct intensive consultations on specific leaks on special issues with those who work on these issues. improve community level democracy to show activism for communities and leadership of community bubble party

organization. we should broaden the scope of self-governance to ensure that the people have the democratic right. which would rely on the working class improve the democratic management system and the public institution with workers and employees and protect workers and employees in the democratic way. the organizations of various types should also get involved to the government administration to promote broad-based governance of the country in advance way. we can make a scientific way to enhance and start the ms much suggested to ensure that everyone abides by the law. we must make sure that all are equal and laws are observed in

strictly enforced and lawbreakers are persecuted in the which includes the socialist system of laws, exercise governance and administration and continued to reform of the judicial structure -- [inaudible] in both thinking and action. no organization has the privilege of others up in the constitution of the law. and no one in the position of power is allowed in any way to take the law. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: the administrative systems should set for his government administration from the management of enterprises and

estate assets, public institutions and social organizations adabas structure of governance that is scientifically defined functions and satisfy the people. they should depend on the reform of the system concerning matters subject to government approval and continue to streamline and delegate more power to lower levels. which is steadily and to establish larger government departments and improve the division of function among them. should control the government bodies and cut a number of bearbaiting officials. we should improve the mechanism for coordinating reform and conduct major reforms. establish a mechanism in oversight. the message power in government operations and management of institutional checks to stay

informed about participating expressed fears in the government operations. we should make sure that decisions we are making check each other in the function concerns. we should continue scientific, democratic and law based to improve decision-making. we should make the exercise that power more open. we should have democratic oversight for solace in oversight of public opinions to ensure the people of the power and the power is exercised in a press arid manner. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: seven, consolidate and develop -- [inaudible]

we should hope for socialism and consolidate the theoretical and political foundation of the united front guided by the principle of long-term political existence, treating each other with authority in both good and bad times and we should strengthen unity and cooperation of the democratic party without participation. we should faithfully implement the party's policies for ethnic groups and improve the system of autonomy. should speed up development of abnormality and ensure that all night live and develop together in harmony. [applause] [speaking chinese] >> translator: we should implement surprised basic policy on religion and fully leverage the positive growth of religious speakers and deliver promoting economic and social development. we should encourage and guide new social groups to contribute

more to socialism with chinese characteristics and continued to implement the party's policy and support return of overseas chinese participating in modernization -- [inaudible] [applause] [speaking chinese] transcode the path of making political characteristics as a path that rallies people in their hundreds of millions in pursuing a common course. along this path to ensure that china's socialist democracy is greater. [applause]

[speaking chinese] >> translator: developing a strong culture is china. culture is the lifeblood of the nation and who gives the people a sense of belonging to complete a prosperous society and our respect and achieve the great renewal of the chinese nation through mass create socialist culture and bring about development, enrichment, increase china's soft power and enable culture to guide social trends, educate the people, serve society and development. to develop a strong socialist culture in china, we must take the socialist path of promoting cultural advance the chinese characteristics. we should adhere to the goal of serving the people and socialism are the policy of having 100

flowers bloom and 100 schools of content and the principle of maintaining close contact with reality like into people. we should fully promote socialist culture and ethical progress and manager of progress to develop a national come is scientific and people oriented socialist culture that embraces modernization for the world in the future. [applause] to develop a strong socialist culture in china, it is critical to inspire the culture of creativity of the whole nation. we should keep in the reform of the cultural sect care, release and develop project aforesaid, fluster the democratic atmosphere in both academic research and artistic pursuit, create a vast culture ringer for

the people and encourage the free flow of inspiration from all sources. by doing so, we open up a new horizon promoting china's advance the chinese nation's cultural creativity will continuously burst forward and china's cultural life will flourish as never before with basic culture rights and interests better protect good to act within moral standards as to what i did the cultural standards of the people fully raised. the poor socialist values should continue to adapt to china's conditions keeping up with the times and increase its appeal to the people. work hard to quit the whole party of the theories of socialism with chinese mistakes and educate the people. we should carry out education about our ideals and convictions and rally the people under the grape dinner of socialism with chinese wrist aches.

..

>> practicing integrity, promoting cooperation. we should conduct more public activities to promote progress and encourage volunteer service. serving the cultural and intellectual life. we should provide the people with better nourishment to the mind. we should carry out a faster pace also projects that benefit the people. we should promote traditional chinese culture. we should advocate healthy

things on the internet and expand scientific knowledge and make the whole nation better education. we should fully promote recreational and competitive sports. fourth, we have to increase competitiveness and chinese culture and rapid development in the cultural industries and culture of services. we should launch more major cultural programs. the cultural services system as well. we should promote integration of cultures of science and technology and make cultural operations larger in size and more specialized. we should open the cultural sector to the outside world and

john cultural achievements of other countries. we must adhere to advancing the goals of socialist culture. and we should strive to be the grand goal of developing a strong socialist culture in china. [applause] [applause] we must intensify our efforts of the public services and innovation in management. we should also boost the

fundamental society of the majority of the people. we must ensure that people's well-being and improve the cultural lives, which is a fundamental privilege. we should bring a select benefit , keeping progress to ensure that all people enjoy their lives and education, employment, and medical and aging care and housing so they will lead a better life. we must accelerate structural reform with social management, and we should quicken the pace of these systems.

a law-based system featuring leadership, government institutions, and public education. in which it is separate from social organizations. where government is clearly established and social management serves the public and exercises dynamic response to emergencies. in these regards them as we work hard for the education and satisfaction of the people. to make every effort to increase individual income in the social security system in regards to

people's health and making the revision of social management. education is the cornerstone of our social programs. we must give high priority to developing education and ensure that education serves social modernization and the people how great immigration. to develop morally, and intellectually -- we should provide this for all students. overall education reform will improve the cost of education and provide service and education and ensure balance allocation that education resources fraying.

all this is designed to help all on the required knowledge and skills needed. it is a crucial to the people and we must implement the principle of promoting reliance and governance and the government employee. we should encourage creating employment through expanding job opportunities. we must improve people's abilities to find jobs and set up their own businesses. to ensure that the people have this development, we must

increase individual income with economic development by steps for improvement. we should raise the share of individual income in the distribution of national income. with particular emphasis on distribution. we should improve the way in which incomes are earned. we should prohibit illicit income. social security is the way to ensure people's livelihood and adjust distribution.

we need to provide social security. we are making the system more equitable and sustainable and ensuring a smooth transfer of social security accounts and municipalities. we are raising money for social security funds introduced as a system to embrace insurance funds and ensure that these funds are safe and that they appreciate over time. we should establish a sound

system for the medical and health care for those that community level. we should give high priority in medical insurance and the mechanism of administering it, including making sure there is convenient public health care in more places. we should have more personnel and promote education in us. we should include the way in which the government provides public services. we much leverage the people in social management.

we should protect their rights the rights and interests and improve the public safety system we should intensify efforts to ensure law and order and improved systems and protect the people's rights and property. we should improve the national security strategy to ensure maximum security. as long as this party and all of us measure these efforts, we can foster a dynamic environment in which everyone will live in social harmony and reaps the benefits from a better society. [applause]

>> translator: promoting ecological progress is vitally important in china's future. including rapid and sustainable development of the chinese nation. we shall remain committed to the basic state polities in conserving resources and protecting the environment, as well as the principal of giving high priorities to conserving resources and protecting the environment and promoting this national restoration.

the ecological environment serves to reverse this trend. the working and living environment for the people, we need to contribute our share to global in ecological security. guided by the principles of maintaining balance between populations, resources and environment and promoting economic and social ecological benefits, the development is under control. we should achieve sovereign will.

we should retain ecological security. we should safeguard china's maritime interests and build it into a good power. and promote all round resource conservation and we should conserve resources and drastically reduce energy, land, and water consumption per unit of cdp. not a lot we should develop an economy to reduce waste

consumption and reusing resources and recycle waste. third, we ought to increase the production of ecosystem and environment. we should accelerate consumption -- placing emphasis on serious environmental problems to people. we will work with the international community. on the basic premises of equity importance, that is transmitted the responsibilities and respective capabilities of all

countries. were warning and punishing mechanism should be adopted for establishing a system for developing and protecting china's geographical space. we should increase publicity of ecological progress and must treasure nature more consciously to protect the ecosystem and usher in a new era of ecological progress. >> translator: accelerating modernization in the armed forces. to modernize national defense, we must follow the guidance during the historical period and

strengthening our national defense. we should promote security strategy and ensure that the arms forces have a historical mission and we should implement the military strategies and expand and intensify the possibility to accomplish a wide range of options. we should fully take on the revolutionary nature of the armed forces and they are incentivized in all respects. we must adhere to the absolute leadership of the armed forces

and cultivate the core value of of contemporary revolutionary service. and we shall achieve a military modernization and ramp up the efforts. should increase efforts to run the armed forces in accordance with the law and modernization should be brought to a new level. we should enhance our capacity for innovation and encourage research and industry and continue to follow military and

surveillance. and we should consolidate between the military and the government. china's arms forces have always upheld these. [applause] [speaking in native tongue] >> translator: enriching the practice of one country in regards to china's unification. we have embarked in which they on the mainland to draw on each

other's other's strengths and pursue common development and the success is one global recognition. the underlying goals of the principles and policies adopted by the central government is to uphold china's sovereignty, security, and development interest and maintain long-term prosperity of the two regions. the central governor will act in accordance with chief executives and governments of the cheap special administrative regions. the government will firmly support them and leading people from all walks of life and focusing on economic development, taking in effect the people's well-being and advancing democracy, as well as inclusiveness, mutual support, and harmony.

[inaudible] they not only have the ability but to develop for two reasons. and share with other people in china the glory of being chinese. useful reunification is in the best interest of the chinese nation, including our friends in taiwan. we must come above everything else, ensure peaceful growth

between the two sides of the taiwan strait. we must adhere to the principle. and pursue a common endeavor. including a separatist attempt to china's independence. we will never separate from the motherland by any means. working hand in hand, we, the sons and daughters of the chinese nation, will surely accomplish the great cause.

the common endeavor of the great chinese nation. >> translator: we will continue to promote the peace and development of mankind. the countries have only one way to share. to pursue development and cooperation and eliminate poverty and avoid confrontation in order to have common prosperity.

including promoting equality, inclusiveness, mutual learning, and a mutual beneficial cooperation in international relations and making joint efforts to uphold international standards of justice. china will continue to promote mutual benefit. and promote common development. [inaudible] china will unwaveringly follow a win-win strategy and promote sustainable and balance while of the global economy to increase cooperation. and china is committed to growing friendship and the bases

of growing our relations with developed countries by extending areas of cooperation. to give a mutual and beneficial cooperation with them and ensure china's developments will increase unity and cooperation with other developing countries and uphold the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries and effort to increase representation in the voice in international affairs. we want to be a friend of other developing countries.

we are actively participating and multilateral affairs and working to make things more just and applicable. we will conduct exchanges with political parties and organizations of other countries and encourage pupils national and local committees for good relationships with other countries. we are ready to work with the people of other countries to promote peace and development for mankind. [speaking in native tongue] >> translator: making party building relevant and leading in leading the people and completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in

all respects in socialist modernization and achieving a great renewal of the chinese nation is an important mission for our party. the whole party must bear in mind that only by taking this interest among the people and delivering benefits to them, can we remain invincible. the party can remain in the forefront of the times. all party members must focus on the party's governance capacity and advanced nature. continuing to free our minds and carry out reform and innovation and from itself with strict discipline. we should make all efforts strategically and organizationally to improve the conduct. we should become better able to

uphold party integrity and improve party rules and regulations. we should enhance our capacity order sell security, self-improvement, and self innovation and build the party into an innovative service oriented learning market government party. by taking these steps, we can ensure that the party is always guiding the cause of socialism with chinese characteristics. and it will include the eight following tasks. we must be firm and in our ideals and convictions and remain true to the faith and translate a communist. we must exercise governance for the people and maintain close ties with them. we must vigorously promote interparty democracy and enhance the creative vitality. including this system of